Are People Going To Drink More Or Less Alcohol In 2026? Here's What Research Suggests

"Nah, I'm chillin'" is a phrase firmly planted in the vernacular of today's young adult — but not in a milquetoast Reaganomics "just say no" way. Current trends indicate that consumers across the board (but particularly Gen Zs and Millennials) will be drinking less alcohol in 2026, and there's no shortage of reasons why. According to Forbes, consumers at large seem to be adopting a premeditated approach to drinking, planning ahead of time which days they will drink, or how many drinks they will have on a given night. These "deliberate wellness" trends are emblematic of a larger cultural shift toward health-consciousness in the U.S., not exclusive to the spirits category (i.e., canned corned beef hash for breakfast versus avocado toast, and other dining habits of the Boomer generation that baffle younger foodies). 

Alcohol consumption is increasingly being viewed as unhealthy in the U.S., and even "moderation" is out of the picture for many consumers. Since Gallup began tracking Americans' drinking behavior in 1939, its 2025 report demonstrated a record-low 54% of U.S. adults who say they drink alcohol. This figure represents a slow but consistent downturn: 62% in 2023 and to 58% in 2024, and far less than the 71% of U.S. adults who reported drinking alcohol 50 years ago. The majority of Americans of all ages (53%) say drinking in moderation ("one or two drinks a day") is bad for one's health — and the World Health Organization's (WHO) role in this collective public shift cannot be overstated.

The WHO has been consistent in its messaging about alcohol's role in increasing consumers' risk of preventable diseases, effectively rebranding binge-drinking as a source of bodily harm at least as much as a weekend leisure activity. This expansion of the existing "damp January" movement is buttressed by the emergence of non-alc spirits as its own category, rather than as an acquiesced substitute. The rise of elevated craft mocktails and high-quality zero-proof spirits brands has made opting out of alcohol easier and more pleasurable. Meanwhile, other players like THC seltzers and mushroom chocolate bars are expanding the relaxation categories.

Riding the momentum of holistic health messaging, mainstream public conversation is also colored by an increased awareness about alcohol's negative impact on neurological conditions like anxiety. Drinking is prohibited altogether by certain behavioral medications. SSRIs and alcohol don't gel, says the Cleveland Clinic, and per a 2024 study published by the American Academy of Pediatrics, more and more young adults are receiving antidepressant prescriptions (66.3% increase in folks ages 12–25 from 2016 to 2022, 56.5% faster after March 2020 for females aged 18–25).

According to a 2025 report by NielsenIQ, the non-alcoholic beer, wine, and spirits category saw a whopping $925M in off-premise sales last year, demonstrating a whopping 22% year-over-year growth rate. Interestingly, 92% of these non-alc customers also report buying full-proof spirits — a foot on either side, not abstaining but making conscious choices surrounding alcohol consumption.

Not dismissing the human sociological factor, declining spirits sales could also be a natural reactionary shift away from the "party as hard as you can" marketing inundated on late Gen X and early Millennial consumers. Kesha's "Animal" album still slaps cover-to-cover...but who could forget the fallout from Four Loko? Does the word "Jägerbomb" make you wince? You aren't alone. Looking further back, the Baby Boomer generation preceded changes in alcohol-safety-based legislation, like the 1984 National Minimum Drinking Age Act, which bumped up the party age from 18 to 21. Other, more recent legislative changes — like the multi-state legalization of recreational marijuana use — have broadened consumer options in the opposite direction. As of February 2024, says the Pew Research Center, 79% of Americans live in a county with a cannabis dispensary.

More broadly, 2026's consumers are making habitual changes to redefine social life without alcohol — or at least questioning their existing relationships with drinking. This shifting consumer trend directly opposes decades of alcohol marketing as a "social enhancer," as folks lean away from bar culture and toward financial stability and mental and physical health. Externally, declining alcohol sales could also be a recession indicator. When discretionary spending budgets tighten, dropping $50 on the three-to-six White Claws that constitute a "night out" might seem less preferable than a singular mocktail, or a $10 preroll and a movie at home.