Why Your Thanksgiving Turkey Might Break The Bank This Year

Turkey is a centerpiece of Thanksgiving dinner. In 2017, the USDA reported that Americans ate 46 million turkeys on Thanksgiving Day. As the big day approaches, consumers will need to budget carefully because turkey prices are expected to rise significantly in 2025. The USDA's September Outlook Report shows a 40% increase in the price of wholesale turkey from 2024.

Last year, the average price for turkey was $0.94 per pound, the lowest it had been since 2019. The forecast for Thanksgiving 2025 initially was $1.19 per pound which was not an insignificant rise, but not nearly as high as it became after the report was released. Since September's report, that number has been adjusted up to $1.315 per pound, which will be rounded up to $1.32 when it comes time to pay at the grocery store.

Typically, it's recommended that you plan for one to one and a half pounds of turkey per guest. According to Today, the average turkey for Thanksgiving dinner weighs between 15 and 16 pounds. That means if you spent $15.04 on a 16-pound turkey last year, the same turkey this year will cost $21.12. Keep in mind, those were wholesale prices, so your grocery store markup is going to be factored in. Remember, there are other red flags to watch out for when buying a turkey, too.

At the beginning of October, avian flu was detected in turkey flocks again. About 195 million turkeys were raised in 2025, and although that seems like a lot, it is actually the lowest number since 1985. Because the current flock is relatively small, demand and prices are going to increase the closer we get to Thanksgiving.

Since that September report came out, over half a million more turkeys were affected by avian flu, which will likely drive prices even higher. While there doesn't seem to be any risk of a turkey shortage, fresh turkeys and birds of different sizes may be in limited supply. That means if you were hoping for a particularly large fresh turkey, you might be out of luck.

It's always good to shop around to compare prices. At this time of year, some stores are happy to offer turkey as a loss leader, selling it at a low price because they know you're going to come in and get the rest of your groceries at the same time. You may want to take advantage of Aldi's Thanksgiving deal this year. Their turkeys are just $0.77 per pound. A frozen Butterball on Walmart's website right now is still only $0.97 per pound. The most affordable turkey at Whole Foods is $2.49 per pound. As we get closer to the day and older stock is sold out and new turkey is brought in, expect the prices to keep going up. Fresh birds sold the week before will likely be pricier. Your best bet may be to shop for deals now while you still can to ensure that perfect turkey dinner on Thanksgiving Day.