Why You Might Want To Stock Up On Red Meat Before The Tariffs

If you thought red meat prices were going to come down anytime soon, a new wave of potential tariffs from the Trump administration may get in the way. American consumers were rocked by inflation a few years ago, especially at the supermarket, where prices have risen over 30% since 2019. Red meat — including beef — was some of the hardest hit with rises in the 40% range over that time period. Beef has gotten expensive because of a few different factors, including low supply from an ongoing drought and high grain prices, as well as increasing demand despite the price increases. Those increases have mercifully leveled off over the past few years, with mostly steady prices since 2023, although the overall level has stayed elevated. But now a new threat has emerged that might mean another spike in the price of red meat: President Donald Trump's trade wars.

One of the biggest targets of the President's threats to impose tariffs has been our neighbors and trading partners, Mexico and Canada, and those two countries also happen to be the two biggest exporters of beef to the United States. Trump has been threatening 25% across-the-board tariffs on Mexico and Canada for months, although he has briefly backed off after striking a deal with the Mexican and Canadian leaders at the beginning of February. However the delay was only for one month, and experts are still concerned the tariffs will take effect soon if a new deal can't be reached.

Most beef consumed in the U.S. is produced here, with imports accounting for about 12% of the beef supply in the country. But within that number, Mexico and Canada alone account for around half of all imports. That still may not seem like a lot, but small disruptions in the food supply chain can cause outsized increases in price. Egg prices have skyrocketed recently, with the average price jumping 150% in the last six months. This has been mostly due to bird flu, which has killed about 15% of the American supply of egg-laying chickens. Considering that President Trump is also threatening tariffs on other major beef suppliers like Brazil, that could mean more significant price increases. And for a product that already has a much higher price level than eggs, even a smaller percentage increase could mean a bigger net increase in price.

Given the back-and-forth nature of recent trade negotiations, there is no knowing which tariffs will actually be implemented, or at what level, but you may want to read up on freezing meat if you want to keep enjoying relatively affordable steaks in the future. The past five years have been tough for American grocery stores, and if these tariffs stay on the table, the coming years could be just as bad.